NBA Fantasy: Top DFS Lineup Picks for Feb. 10

Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate! I hope you had a successful weekend and are ready to dive into some exciting winter basketball action. As we shift our focus from the NFL to the NBA, I want to thank you for following my advice throughout the season. Here's to a profitable year ahead!

If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a nine- or 10-game slate tonight, depending on the site you use, which provides plenty of options for swapping and lineup construction.

Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

NBA DFS core plays

Nikola Jokić (C – DEN)

DraftKings: $12,700FanDuel: $12,800

Nikola Jokić is averaging over 68 fantasy points a night and has gone over 70 in three of his last five games. With a bigger slate and expected value options available, do what you can to get Jokić in your lineup. Don’t overthink this one.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)

DraftKings: $10,800FanDuel: $11,600

Shai Gilgerous-Alexander is quickly becoming a matchup-proof lock as well, putting up 50-point efforts. His 50-point scoring effort against Phoenix is still front of mind. The Pelicans are the third-worst defense in the league with Oklahoma City a big favorite.

Chet Holmgren

is off the injury report, but I still expect him to be eased back in. Gilgerous-Alexander is better at home and the Pelicans have been the second-fastest-paced team in the last 10 games, so the Kentucky product will get plenty of work with his 38% usage rate.

Damian Lillard (PG – MIL)

DraftKings: $9,200FanDuel: $9,500

Apologies for the dual point-guard recommendations, but Damian Lillard is set to smash tonight if Gilgerous-Alexander is too expensive. I imagine the Bucks are going to be highly rostered, so I’d lean Gilgerous-Alexander in GPPs and Lillard in cash.

The Milwaukee guard is coming off a 69-DraftKings point effort and his usage rate will only climb with

Giannis Antetokounmpo

out for a bit. Golden State’s defense has taken a hit recently, ranking 17th in the last 10 games, while still a faster-than-average-paced team.

Lillard should see a 31% usage rate tonight with around 36 minutes of play. He’s averaged 31 points a night, so his scoring will be there and a triple-double is within the realm of possibility tonight.

NBA DFS cash game targets

Kyle Kuzma (SF, PF – MIL)

DraftKings: $5,300FanDuel: $6,200

A little back-to-back Milwaukee action for your liking. I expect Kyle Kuzma to start tonight. Either way, he and

Bobby Portis

are great options for cash game lineups tonight. He’s averaged a 24% usage rate in his first two games with the Bucks and he played 36 minutes last time out against Philly.

Kuzma may see similar numbers against the Pelicans, who are not the best defense. Kuzma and Portis will likely be quite highly rostered but have the high possibility to return great value with such cheap pricing, high minutes and high usage.

Deandre Ayton (C – POR)

DraftKings: $6,700FanDuel: $7,200

After his 58-fantasy point effort, Deandre Ayton’s price saw a bit of an uptick but it’s come back down to earth now at $6,700 on DraftKings. Ayton is underpriced here. The Portland big man has been averaging 32 minutes a night with a 22% usage rate over the last two weeks of play.

Ayton has been scoring at a higher rate and is bound for a double-double. Denver is a big pace-up spot for Portland and allows the eighth-most fantasy points a game to opposing centers. In the last 10 games, Denver’s defense has also taken a dip with a bottom-10 defensive rating during that period. Ayton is a nice money saver at the center position to get an even lineup across your cash game contests.

Miles Bridges (PF, SF – CHA)

DraftKings: $8,800FanDuel: $8,400

If you read this article right before lock I imagine things will be different. As I type this, however, the entire Charlotte roster outside of Miles Bridges is questionable.

LaMelo Ball

is dealing with an ankle injury,

Mark Williams

just had a trade rescinded and

Nick Smith Jr.

and

Josh Green

are both dealing with ailments.

Bridges will be a high-rostered play tonight with his usage rate above 30% in the last two weeks of play. I don’t see that changing much here. He’s averaged 45 DraftKings points a game in the last seven matches but has shown the ability to get above 50. His floor is the important part here, though, and with the lineup up in the air, I imagine his baseline will be high tonight.

NBA DFS GPP targets

Harrison Barnes (SF, PF – SAC)

DraftKings: $5,000FanDuel: $4,800

Yes, I acknowledge

Victor Wembanyama

is an excellent play tonight, but his rostership might end up being through the roof. Harrison Barnes is in an excellent position for a ceiling game, however, and is a great leverage play.

No team allows more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than the Washington Wizards. They are a massive pace-up spot against the second-worst defense in the league, so there’s no better spot for a big Barnes performance. He’s coming off a 38-point outing on DraftKings against one of the most difficult defenses in the league, so I say it’s well within reason for a similar output here.

Franz Wagner (SF, PF – ORL)

DraftKings: $8,500FanDuel: $8,600

It’s been an up-and-down year for Franz Wagner with all the injuries faced by Orlando throughout the season. With

Paolo Banchero

in the lineup, Wagner is not seeing nearly as much rostership. Still, he’s playing with a 34% usage rate while averaging 33 minutes a night.

Atlanta’s defense might rank in the middle of the pack but this is one of the biggest pace-up spots of any game all season. Atlanta is the second-fastest-paced team in the league and will give Wagner and company quite the bump in possessions. The Hawks have allowed the second-most points to opposing small forwards and Wagner has scored over 30 points in two of his last three outings. With the potential for over 58 fantasy points, Wagner is a clear option for GPP contests.

Tyler Herro (PG – MIA)

DraftKings: $8,200FanDuel: $8,200

Against Boston, Tyler Herro is a much riskier boom-or-bust option at home tonight. Against Philly last week, the former Kentucky product tallied 30 points and 52 DraftKings points. He’s shown his capacity for 61+ fantasy points and is facing a banged-up Celtics lineup. There’s a path to a ceiling outing here and I think the likelihood of that is far higher than his rostership percentage, making him an ideal leverage option.

NBA DFS value plays

Richaun Holmes (C – WAS)

DraftKings: $4,900FanDuel: $5,600

While Richaun Holmes has been thrust into the starting lineup, playing over 26 minutes a night in each of his last three games, his price still hasn’t jumped that much for his usage.

No one will be as fast as the Wizards, so, of course, this is a pace-down spot but San Antonio still owns the seventh-worst league defense while allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. Of course, Victor Wembanyama is a force down low, but Holmes doesn’t have to be Wilt Chamberlain to return value as a sub-$5,000 option.

Al Horford (PF – BOS)

DraftKings: $3,900FanDuel: $4,300

For another play featured in a lineup with some questionable tags tonight, we have Al Horford.

Jaylen Brown

and

Jayson Tatum

are both dealing with injuries and even if they are playing, Horford still projects for more than 22 fantasy points tonight.

Horford had averaged over 20 DraftKings points and is at his floor regarding pricing. Miami’s defense is solid and I prefer Horford more so in GPPs. Still, just last week, Horford got to 33 fantasy points against Cleveland, in an equally difficult matchup. I project him for around 28 minutes tonight. With a decent usage rate, he should get to 6X value.

Buddy Hield (SP, PG – GWS)

DraftKings: $4,800FanDuel: $4,900

Jimmy Butler

may be in the Bay with Golden State but Buddy Hield has been consistent of late and might get a big ‘ol bump if Steph Curry misses the game tonight. He’s scored 28+ DK points in three straight games and Milwaukee allows the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards on the season.

Additionally, the Bucks’ defense is going to be lacking tonight and has been sub-par in the last few weeks, ranking fifth-worst in the league over their last 10 games. Hield’s usage has been favorable. at around 20% a night and expecting a s